普洱学院学报

中老铁路作为“一带一路”设施相通的标志性工程，当前面临双向货运失衡的困境，进口货量显著高于出口货量，造成运输资源利用效率较低。通过构建二元Logit模型对货主运输选择行为展开具体分析，结合估计结果和弹性系数，精准量化了各指标对运输选择行为的影响差异。研究显示，2024年中老铁路与公路的货运分担率分别为61.99%和38.01%，铁路已在货运市场中占据主导地位。进一步分析表明，经济性、快速性和品牌知名度为影响货主决策的核心因素，而便利性与服务满意度的影响权重相对较低；同时工业制成品、矿产资源及农产品的运输需求特点各不相同。基于此，确定“弹性越高策略优先级越高”的原则，提出涵盖动态价格调节、运输时效提升、品牌价值强化等维度的优化策略，以期改善中老铁路双向货运失衡状况，提升铁路资源利用率。研究成果可为中老铁路运输组织优化提供直接参考，亦为“一带一路”跨境铁路运营提供实践借鉴。

The China-Laos Railway is a landmark project for infrastructure connectivity under the Belt and Road Initiative. Currently, it faces the problem of an imbalance in two-way freight volumes, with the import cargo volume significantly exceeding export volumes, resulting in suboptimal utilization of transport resources. This paper uses a Logit model to conduct a detailed analysis of shippers' transport choice behavior. By integrating the estimation results with the elasticity coefficient formula, it precisely quantifies the differential impact of various indicators on transport choice behavior. The research findings show that in 2024, the freight share ratio by transport mode was the China-Laos Railway at 61.99% and road at 38.01% respectively, with rail having already established a dominant position in the freight market. Further analysis indicates that cost-effectiveness, speed, and brand recognition are the core factors affecting shippers' decisions, while convenience and service satisfaction carry relatively low impact weights. Based on these findings, this paper proposes optimization strategies encompassing dynamic price adjustments, improvement of transport timeliness, and enhancement of brand value, aiming to rectify the imbalance in two-way freight operations of the China-Laos Railway and improve railway resource utilization. The research findings not only provide direct reference for optimizing the transport organization of the China-Laos Railway but also offer practical insights for cross-border railway operations along the Belt and Road.